On July 15, Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for the 2024 United States presidential election, announced JD Vance as his running mate at the Republican National Convention (RNC).

Just three days later, polls showed that 28.9% of voters viewed Vance unfavorably, while only 25.6% saw him favorably, leaving him with a net favorability rating of -3.3%.

By 2020, however, Vance had done a complete 180—not only voting for Trump but also seeking his approval so ardently that Trump joked, “JD is kissing my ass, he wants my support so bad”. Vance even went on to declare that Trump was “the best president of his lifetime”.

But as election day approaches, the more Americans get to know JD Vance, the less they seem to like him. By September 25, Vance’s favorability rating had plummeted to -11.3%.

When Vance entered the race, he was seen as a ‘promising figure’: a safe, well-educated conservative with the potential to become a younger, sharper, and perhaps even more dangerous version of Trump.

Task 1: Appeal to rural voters

This should have been easy for Vance, who built his entire career around the story of his upbringing in a poor, working-class family in the Appalachian region of Ohio. His economic policy plans focus heavily on using federal power to boost and protect domestic companies, rebuild America’s industrial base and create more good jobs for American workers.

However, when he spoke at the RNC about his background, many people began seeing through the surface-level claims of this Yale graduate. In Hillbilly Elegy, Vance blamed Appalachians themselves for their struggles; now, he blames the “elite”. But his vision for eliminating “woke corporations” seems less about empowering ordinary people and more about replacing them with elites like himself.

Task 2: Bring youthful energy

Many hoped that, as a younger candidate, Vance would inject fresh ideas and appeal to moderate and undecided voters.

Trump and Vance acknowledged that they had conflicting opinions on certain issues, but voters expected Vance to offer a dynamic contrast to Trump’s older, more entrenched platform. Instead, Vance quickly revealed just how rigidly conservative he is, especially on social issues—most notably concerning women and, oddly enough, women without children who like cats?

Vance’s family policies have long raised eyebrows. He has referred to declining US birth rates as a “civilizational crisis” and proposed that adults without children should pay higher taxes and have fewer voting rights.

Things took a bizarre turn however when a clip from 2021 went viral of Vance suggesting that Democratic policymakers were out of touch because many of them were “childless cat ladies”. He recently defended this statement to talk show host Megyn Kelly after the subsequent backlash. He’s even gone on to make comments that taking care of grandchildren is the “whole purpose of the postmenopausal female”.

It’s an unspoken rule in politics to steer clear of divisive comments about babies and pets, but Vance managed to mishandle both topics, further tanking his favorability.

Task 3: Bring in some diversity

Even if JD Vance couldn’t bring much to the table, many believed his wife, Usha Chilukuri Vance, could. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Usha is a vegetarian and, perhaps most notably, does not appear to fully align with the MAGA agenda.

Highly educated, she attended Cambridge and Yale Law School (where she met her now husband) and had a successful career at a prestigious Washington DC firm—until she left in July to focus on “caring for our family”. Yet, Vance’s public praise for her seems limited to her role as a “great mom,” overlooking her impressive professional achievements.

Task 4: Don’t act weird

JD Vance’s behavior fed into the Democratic criticism of calling Republicans “weird”, whether it was making jokes that didn’t land—like calling out Democrats for allegedly thinking Diet Mountain Dew is racist or awkwardly walking into local bakeries unrecognized. His clumsy interactions, uncomfortable onstage laughter, and strained attempts to rally support didn’t help his image.

Even Trump has distanced himself from Vance’s missteps. When asked about criticism of their “weird” campaign, Trump didn’t defend his running mate: “Not about me. They’re saying that about JD.”

During the September 10 presidential debate, Trump also made it explicitly clear that he and his running mate had not often communicated or strategized with one another. Responding to Kamala Harris’s very successful and clear messaging surrounding abortion rights, Trump openly dismissed Vance’s comments on vetoing an abortion bill, saying, “I didn’t discuss it with JD, in all fairness… I don’t mind if he has a certain view, but I don’t think he was speaking for me.”

This was one of several remarks made by Trump that left many Americans questioning the legitimacy of his and his running mate’s plans for the future.

While experts debate how much a vice-presidential pick affects election outcomes, it’s clear JD Vance isn’t helping Trump’s chances.

In contrast, Kamala Harris’s VP pick, Minnesota governor Tim Walz, has been much more popular. By September, Walz had accumulated a positive net favorability of 3.5%, and he’s managed to cross party lines more effectively – 11% of Republican respondents view Walz favorably, while only 4% of Democrats feel the same about Vance.

Walz’s background as a rural, working-class former teacher and American football coach has endeared him to voters, who see him as a ‘regular guy’. His sincere, relatable personality stands in stark contrast to Vance’s elitist image.

A debate between Vance and Walz, scheduled for October 1, could shift the polls dramatically. The question is, will Vance finally find his footing or will he continue to miss the mark?