The first round of voting in Poland’s presidential election is over, with Warsaw mayor and liberal candidate Rafał Trzaskowski winning – more narrowly than expected – over his conservative rival Karol Nawrocki. The second and concluding round is on Sunday 1 June.

To better understand why Poles voted the way they did, and to better predict how they might vote in the future, it is crucial to understand current electoral preferences. How do people’s ages or jobs or where they live impact how they vote? Below we analyse how key factors have played out in past elections in Poland, as well as in the current election. 

Men and women

In the 2020 presidential election, voter turnout in the second round stood at 67.31%. 

According to the exit polls, women were more eager to cast their votes at the ballot box than men. This gender disparity is not limited to electoral participation; an even more obvious divide is evident in the candidates chosen by both sexes. 

Women’s support for right-wing parties has decreased significantly over the years, particularly for the Law and Justice party (PiS). In the 2019 parliamentary elections, 43.1% of female voters chose Law and Justice, but four years later, in 2023, that support had dropped to 36.5%. 

Young and old

Another important area in which opinions about candidates and, consequently, voting preferences differ is age. Certain patterns can be observed, both in opinion polls, in interviews with citizens on the streets, and in the results from the first round. 

Those aged 18 to 29 voted most for far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen Konfederacja (34.8%). However, the second most popular candidate in that age group was left-winger Adrian Zandberg (18.7%). It seems that for young people, the most important factor influencing their vote is credibility in opposing both KO and PiS. 

People aged 30 to 39 also chose Mentzen most often – in that group he secured 24.8%; second was Rafał Trzaskowski (Civic Platform/PO), and third Karol Nawrocki (Law and Justice). Here, Zandberg was last among the serious contenders, with only 5.2%. 

In all other age groups, the duopoly’s candidates won, and the older the voters, the more other candidates were marginalised. In the 40 to 49 age group, Trzaskowski secured 34.2% and Nawrocki 26.9%. People aged 50 to 59 voted 36.8% for Trzaskowski and 36.3% for Nawrocki. People over 60 voted 45.3% for Nawrocki and 42.5% for Trzaskowski. 

Rural and urban

Besides age and gender, geography is another crucial factor influencing voting behaviour. Politically, Poland is divided into two parts: east and south, where people tend to vote for more conservative options such as Law and Justice, and the west and north, where liberal options such as Civic Coalition (KO) receive more support. 

This can be attributed to a number of reasons; ­for example, differences in social structure, and the role of the Church have both shaped the modern political map of Poland. This divide can be clearly seen in local results. In the 2019 parliamentary elections, more than 88% of voters in the eastern village of Godziszów – a conservative stronghold – voted for Law and Justice, while in the coastal city of Sopot, Civic Coalition secured more than 50% of the vote.

Education and job

Another key factor is education. There is a visible trend in Poland: the higher the education level, the more likely voters are to support liberal options. In the first round of voting last Sunday, conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki dominated among voters with primary and vocational education, gaining 52.3% and 49.2%, respectively. Liberal candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, on the other hand, recorded his worst results among these groups, with 16% and 22.1%. 

Results were evenly split among voters with secondary education, where Nawrocki secured 29.8% and Trzaskowski 28.9%. The only group where liberals had an advantage were people with a university degree: 38.6% voted for Trzaskowski and 19.9% for Nawrocki.

If we look at voting preference through a socioeconomic lens, some significant patterns emerge. Since the data from this year’s election is not yet available, our analysis is based on data from the 2020 presidential election. 

First, we can assume that farmers mostly support Karol Nawrocki. In 2020, 81.4% of farmers supported current president Andrzej Duda, who is also from the Law and Justice party. Workers will also probably vote similarly to 2020, when 66.4% of them supported the right-wing candidate. These groups traditionally lean towards right-wing and conservative parties, therefore we can expect a similar outcome in the current election.

When we examine occupations such as company owner, manager/expert or student, there was clear support in 2020 for the liberal-centrist Civic Platform. In every single one of these categories, support exceeded 65% for Rafał Trzaskowski – who has narrowly won the first round in the 2025 election.