16 year-old Klaudia Bacza analyses the potential results of the US elections and the impact of the NATO summit on the war in Ukraine
US President Joe Biden reiterates support for Ukraine. Pictured: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gives a speech via video link to G7 leaders on the second day of the three-day G7 summit at Schloss Elmau on June 27, 2022.
July 10, 2024
US 2024 elections: Is this the end of American support for Ukraine?
The 2024 US elections, planned for November 5, are poised to significantly impact Eastern Europe, especially given the pivotal roles of Ukraine and NATO in the region’s security dynamics.
While the US strategic priorities are expected to remain fairly stable, the foreign policy goals of the next administration could shift based on who wins the presidency.
The candidates for the elections are former President Donald Trump, representing the Republicans, and current President Joe Biden, representing the Democrats. One of the central issues in both of their campaigns is foreign policy, as these elections will shape the country’s transatlantic future and relations.
This responsibility has existed since World War 2 when the United States shifted from isolationism to expansionism and became more active in international affairs. Nonetheless, this year’s elections have raised questions about whether America will continue to be as involved in international issues as it has been in the past.
Biden’s foreign policy and Ukraine
Since the beginning of the Ukrainian war in February 2022, the US has taken pride in assisting with negotiations and providing support in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression.
Right at the beginning, Biden condemned the invasion, provided military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and sanctioned Russia and Belarus. Yet, it was still not enough to decrease the impact of the aggression in which thousands of people are currently dying.
With the upcoming elections, Biden’s handling of foreign affairs gets poor marks because, despite his commitment to Ukrainian victory, he is only providing the country with enough weapons to survive the war, not to win it.
June 29, 2024, Uzhhorod, Ukraine. Klaudia Bacza interviews Valery Pekar
On May 30, Politico reported that the US secretly permitted Ukraine to strike inside Russian territory with munitions provided by the US. This military help is exactly what Ukraine needs if it were not for the restrictions that Biden imposed on Kyiv on where exactly they are allowed to strike. Although the US has said it is comfortable adjusting, Ukraine has taken its requests to extend the allowed territory cautiously as at any given moment it could be restricted even more, proving how big of a role the US plays in the war in Ukraine.
Valery Pekar, a co-founder of the New Country Civil which unites experts working on reforms in Ukraine, and a professor at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School, told Harbingers’ Magazine: “We more or less understand what could we expect from democratic administration, although we are not happy indeed with the very slow pace which caused thousands of unnecessary deaths.”
Trump’s potential approach
During his term (2017-2021) Donald Trump addressed NATO multiple times in Belgium, calling on each head of state to “finally contribute their fair share” to the alliance.
Back in 2018, Trump met with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, Finland. During this meeting, they likely discussed several topics, including Russia’s encroachment on Ukraine. However, the substance of the discussion remains unknown. Ukraine later came back on his agenda when he was accused of withholding military aid to Ukraine in order to pressure it to investigate his political rival, Biden.
In his electoral campaign, Trump has been open about his ability to settle the war between Russia and Ukraine in one day if he is elected again. UN experts stated that it couldn’t happen that way. In May 2024, during a fundraiser event, Trump suggested that if he had been president in 2022, he would have bombed the city of Moscow in reaction to Russia’s entire invasion of Ukraine. This appears unlikely given the United States’ limited foreign policy and overall reluctance to engage in conflict.
Read the full interview:
How Far Trump Would Go
In an interview with TIME magazine published in late April 2024, Trump’s response did not ease Ukrainians’ concerns about whether or not he would continue to provide military and humanitarian aid after saying.
In his interview, Trump’s response implied that it required Europe to spend as much on Ukraine as the United States: “I wouldn’t give unless Europe starts equalising. If Europe is not going to pay, why should we pay?”
By that standard, Europeans have passed the test. Europe already provides Ukraine with greater military and humanitarian assistance than the United States does. Europe has also taken in six million Ukrainian refugees and paid much higher energy bills to punish Russia for its aggressiveness.
When Time asked Trump about his thoughts on NATO, its past cooperation with the US, and how it would change in the future, he responded: “We were protecting Europe. And they weren’t even paying.” Trump went on to suggest that he is not looking to withdraw from NATO but to ensure that Europe contributes equally.
Valery Pekar is also worried that in case of Trump’s victory the US will halt NATO’s support and the war “might enter into the NATO territory, either Baltic countries or Poland”.
Reflecting on Trump’s possible re-election, Erica Marat, an Associate Professor at the Center for Security Studies (CSS) of Georgetown University, said, “Ukraine will be pushed to settle the conflict with Russia and concede territories”.
What does the future possibly hold for NATO?
What you need to know about NATO: the upcoming Summit in Washington DC
By Alia Saphier
The 2024 NATO summit, scheduled on July 9 –11, will welcome Sweden as the newest member of the alliance out of the 32 allies. This year’s Summit, which will occur only a few months before the elections, will mainly focus on further support for Ukraine.
Erica Marat explained to Harbingers’ Magazine how the NATO summit and the elections are interconnected: ‘’It would be, Trump vs. NATO’’.
Maret continued how “NATO countries in Europe are considering the possibility that Trump will be re-elected and he will undermine the alliance from within by cutting US involvement and funding which could be crucial, especially for Ukraine’s survival.”
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