In April, Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, leader of the Armenian Apostolic Church in the Tavush diocese, launched anti-government protests in response to the border delimitation process with Azerbaijan, which started in the Tavush region.

Frustrated over unilateral land concessions by Armenia, Galstanyan and his supporters, under the banner ‘Tavush for the Motherland’, have been pushing for the resignation of Pashinyan and for the archbishop to replace him as prime minister.

In response to criticism over his eligibility to lead Armenia, Galstanyan has said he will suspend his clerical status.

However, only 10% of the participants surveyed by Harbingers’ regarded Galstanyan as a suitable replacement. Most respondents (who came mainly from Yerevan, the province of Lori or were refugees from Artsakh) were unsure about who could potentially fill the role.

Prime Minister Pashinyan and members of his Civil Contract party have slammed the Armenian Apostolic Church’s role in the protests, which they have labelled ‘Russian-backed’ and a threat to the ongoing peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenia-Azerbaijan border deal

The initial border delimitation deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan calls for Armenia to return control of four abandoned villages located on the border between Armenia’s northeastern Tavush region and Azerbaijan’s northwestern Gazakh district. Azerbaijan has not said it will return any territories to Armenia.

Although the four villages legally belong to Azerbaijan, Armenia captured them in the 1990s during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War and they have been populated by Armenians since.

Residents of surrounding villages are very concerned about the border demarcation process as some roads will be included in Azerbaijan’s territory, raising concerns over security and communication with the rest of Armenia.

In an interview with an Armenian TV channel on May 1, Pashinyan said that the four villages were never part of Armenia’s Tavush region as “they were part of Soviet Azerbaijan”. He also called the border deal “a very important cornerstone for the development of Armenia’s sovereignty and independence”.

Violent clashes with police

The movement reached a violent breaking point on June 12 when security forces reportedly used disproportionate force against thousands of protesters who were demanding Pashinyan’s resignation.

More than 100 people sought medical attention following the clashes, with many facing criminal charges.

17 Armenian civil society organisations issued a joint statement condemning the police violence, and in particular, the alleged use of Russian-made Zarya-3 stun grenades that were not authorised by the Ministry of Health. The chief of police defended the use of stun grenades, saying that “the situation was out of control”.

International human rights groups, including Amnesty International, have called for an investigation into the use of police violence against protesters in Armenia.

Since then, the anti-government protests have died down, with Archbishop Galstanyan saying that he and his team would rethink their approach following the violent police crackdown, and would restart the movement in September.

When questioned by Harbingers’ about the lasting impact of the protests, 55% believed there would be no future impact, 26.7% anticipated negative effects, and 18.3% foresaw positive outcomes.