Could far-right candidate Slawomir Mentzen make the second round?

in Warsaw, Poland

15-year-old Franciszek Józefowicz assesses the three main candidates for president, according to the latest polls

Poland’s presidential election is less than a month away (18 May), so anything and everything happening in recent days could be of significance. March was a fruitful month filled with controversies and events, so it’s important to shed light on the key moments.

The latest polls show a growing gap between Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate from the liberal Civic Platform (PO) party and the most popular choice so far, and Karol Nawrocki, the candidate from the right-wing party Law and Justice (PiS). Nawrocki has dropped in popularity since February, from 24% to 22% and, at time of writing, is far behind Trzaskowski, who is on 34%.

Karol Nawrocki has the support of Law and Justice, but lacks a clear agenda

By Antoni Popczyński

The reasons for Nawrocki’s lack of popularity are numerous. It seems that he was simply not the right choice. His career is short and he lacks experience in both public speeches and politics. He also lacks basic knowledge on international affairs and diplomacy, which has been exposed by journalists on many occasions.

His alleged connections with the Gdańsk mafia and neo-Nazi underworld does not help. However, it gets more absurd than this. It turned out that some years ago Nawrocki published a biographyof a famous mob boss from Gdansk – but under a pseudonym: Tadeusz Batyr. Stranger still, Nawrocki later appeared – disguised – as Tadeusz Batyr on public TV. In the interview, “Batyr” even praises himself, Nawrocki, as a great and influential historian and says that the biography was inspired by his writings.

On top of it all comes a scandal with Collegium Humanum, a private university in Warsaw. It seems that Collegium Humanum has been selling fake MBA diplomas to students for four years (2019–22), including many to members or associates of PiS – the presidential party since 2015 and the ruling party from 2015 to 2023 (when Civic Platform’s leader Donald Tusk became prime minister).

This controversy puts PiS’s competence in question and begs even more questions. Are there any more party members with a fake diploma? Did the head of the party know about this? The scandal is certainly partly to blame for Nawrocki’s drop in support.

Trzaskowski, who is also the mayor of Warsaw, currently looks as if he is unbeatable with his 12% lead, but there is the still the third main contender, Slawomir Mentzen – who could still prove to be a big obstacle.

Mentzen closes on Nawrocki, raises questions about generational change on Poland’s far right

By Franciszek Józefowicz and Mateusz Sarna

Mentzen represents the far-right Confederation (Konfederacja) party, and his numbers have also risen recently. They reached as high as 19% in mid March, putting him dangerously close to second place – though he has since dropped back to 17%.

With Nawrocki losing credibility and the trust of his voters, Mentzen, as the second most popular right-wing candidate, is an obvious choice for many people. If he can maintain the momentum, he will have a great chance of making it to the second round on 1 June – Trzaskowski would have to secure more than 50% if he is to win the first round outright.

There is a chance that Mentzen will pass Nawrocki and will be in run-off – or at least that’s what nearly halfof people interviewed by UCE Research believe, whether they fear or cheer him.

In the upcoming days we will probably see Nawrocki’s numbers drop even more as the Collegium Humanum controversy is far from over but who will these people opt to vote for instead? Will they choose the center left Trzaskowski or far right Mentzen? Or maybe they will choose a different candidate? There is nothing we can do but wait and see.

Written by:

Franek Józefowicz

Contributor

Warsaw, Poland

Born in 2009, Franek joined Harbingers’ Magazine to cover international affairs and write movie reviews.

His interests include international law, modern history, and cinematography. He plans to study international law in the future.

In his free time, he likes to play the guitar and watch movies. His favourite directors include Quentin Tarantino, Edward Berger, and Stanley Kubrick.

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